The Florida Keys had better-than-expected visitor occupancy this season, but businesses shouldn't expect that trend to continue into summer, according to the results of two travel surveys released this week.

A new AP-Gfk Poll found that only 42 percent of Americans plan a leisure trip this summer, down from the 49 percent who said they planned to take a summer trip in an AP-Ipsos poll conducted four years ago. A third of Americans surveyed said they already have canceled at least one trip this year because of financial concerns.

A separate survey compiled by AOL Travel and Zogby Survey show that more than half of all Americans feel they have an even smaller budget for vacationing this year compared to last year. Thirty percent of all Americans say they will take only one vacation this year, and for those who plan to take a vacation, about a third plan to spend $1,000 or less on their trip.

The news comes as no surprise to the Monroe County Tourist Development Council (TDC), which has been keeping a close eye on travel trends since the economic recession began last fall.

"The TDC did forecast back in October of 2008 that visitors would be cutting back on their vacation spending, and would be looking for discounts and added value items for their trip," tourism council Director Harold Wheeler said.

The council also forecast that visitors would be shortening their vacations, staying closer to home and likely negotiating rates with lodging properties after they arrived in the Keys -- all things found to be true so far.

Similar money-saving tactics are being used around the country, according to the Zogby survey, which found that 61 percent of travelers plan to ask travel providers if they offer discounts, such as student, AARP or AAA membership. Compared to last year, 54 percent of Americans are more likely to compare prices across multiple travel Web sites to the find the best price available, 58 percent of travelers said they would consider booking a connecting flight instead of a direct flight to their vacation destination to save money, and 61 percent are willing to be flexible with their vacation travel dates to get the best possible price available.

The Zogby survey also said 49 percent of Americans plan to vacation around local tourist attractions, such as museums, aquariums or amusement parks, to save on travel costs. Additionally, 60 percent are planning to travel only within the United States, given the cost of travel abroad.

These last two trends could work in favor of the Keys market, which in summer already experiences a large number of drive-down visitors from South Florida.

While the Zogby survey indicated most travelers aren't jumping on last-minute deals when it comes to vacations -- most survey respondents indicated they were planning their travel weeks and months in advance -- Wheeler said that has not been the case locally.

"We have found a different result from the Zogby Survey in that visitors have shortened their planning or booking time to almost last-minute travel," Wheeler said. "The lodging properties throughout the Keys were seeing not only last-minute bookings, but walk up to the counter bookings. I think [the visitors] thought that there was going to be plenty of space available at the hotel, and they knew they could negotiate a price while standing there."

Price breaks and walk-up availability are not as abundant on weekends as they are on weekdays, according to Eddie Watson, front desk agent at Historic Key West Inns, a locally owned company that operates six guesthouses: Chelsea House, Albury Court, Lighthouse Court, Merlin Guesthouse, Key Lime Inn and Budget Key West.

"People are traveling last-minute," he said, predicting a "worse than typical" summer season. "The weekends are full, but the weekdays are dead. We're empty, so we're willing to cut rates during the week."

Fast Buck Freddie's General Manager John Muhly said the Vandenberg sinking and typical summer drive-down traffic from Miami may spare the Keys the same despair as other areas.

"We're pretty confident that things are looking more optimistic than the predictors say," he said. "I honestly think that we can look forward to a summer of good traffic."

How busy or dead the Keys will be this summer may depend on the weather as much as economics.

"I think it might be a little slow this summer, but it's hard to predict," said Tiffany Balbuena, a manager at Turtle Kraals, where it's hoped that happy hour and daily specials will attract customers. "It will have a lot to do with the hurricane season. But we're optimistic."

Not surprisingly, the less money you make, the less likely you are to take a vacation, the AP-Gfk Poll says. More than two-thirds of those in the $100,000-plus bracket will take some type of leisure trip this summer, compared to 48 percent of those earning $50,000 to $100,000, and just one-third of those with family incomes under $50,000.

Road trips also are likely to be affected this summer, despite a noticeable decrease in gas prices compared to last summer when it reached nearly $4 a gallon.

IHS Global Insight, which studies travel habits for AAA, expects Americans to take 20 million fewer trips from April to September and spend $30.3 billion less than last year.

"If you live in the West, you'll go to the Rockies, but you won't go to New England," said Mark Sedenquist, publisher of RoadTripAmerica.com, where travelers share tips about how to get the most out of their vacations.

Arch Woodside, a professor of marketing at Boston College who specializes in tourism, described the overall decrease in summer travel as "a substantial drop" that will have a significant impact on the industry, especially in places like Florida and New York City, where tourism is big business.

Woodside said travel could shrink even more next year as new economic realities sink in.

"Most people unconsciously maintain their lifestyles immediately after a big drop in their economic well-being: an 'I'm going to be all right' response," Woodside said. "The impact of their new lower economic reality becomes conscious reality in the second year following a big change."

Age-wise, 30- to 49-year-olds were most likely to travel, with 48 percent planning a trip, the AP-Gfk Poll says. Among those ages 18 to 29, 43 percent said they would travel, and among those ages 50 to 64, 41 percent plan a trip. The real drop-off is among older folks: Just 34 percent of those 65 or older plan to travel this summer.

Woodside said actions by marketers could counteract the drop in leisure travel with "innovative travel packaging." One area where he predicts growth in 2010 and 2011 is in tours offering "must-do-in-this-lifetime-experiences with an unbeatable low price" designed to attract "independent travelers -- many of whom hate (conventional) packaged tours."

Citizen News Editor Cheryl Smith and Associated Press reports contributed to this story.

amswary@keysnews.com