Saturday, November 21, 2009

Fall in the Florida Keys, with its tourism-based economy, has always been an economic challenge to businesses and residents. The county normally enjoys healthy commerce in winter and spring, and summers have been relatively strong due to the South Florida drive market. But fall historically has been a slow time.

It was for that reason, in part, that Keys residents put fingers in their ears 37 years ago to muffle the sounds of the annual Poker Run, and sometimes covered their eyes over the past 30 years to welcome Fantasy Fest. Both of these annual events pump millions of dollars into the local economy, and allow a little breathing room to the county's service industry to pay bills until winter guests return.

This year, these events not only were a shot in the arm, but early lodging-tax numbers show Fantasy Fest to have been more profitable than the previous year.

Normally, if the lodging industry gets "heads in beds," money also tends to flow to restaurants, bars and retail stores. So we are optimistic that when state sales-tax numbers become available, they will parallel the resort tax to show that event revenue truly trickled down to the retail level, benefiting the community as a whole.

As one bar owner put it in a recent Citizen story, when the tourist industry does well, the city does well. When lodgings do well, bartenders and wait staff have more income to spend on local goods and services. Hoteliers can afford to hire more staff to more quickly turn over rooms, and to improve the experience of visitors. It just keeps paying forward.

One snag in this rosy mosaic is unemployment. Florida is one of the top states in the country in unemployment, and Miami-Dade, Broward and Monroe counties lead the state. With state unemployment topping 11 percent in September and expected to grow through the fall, recovery is still a ways off.

In order for our local economy to fully recover, the Keys will have to achieve the full employment numbers of a few years ago, and regain a stable real estate market. There are some small indicators, especially in the real estate market, that the Keys are on that path.

Times are still challenging for many, and there are significant challenges ahead as local governments adjust to reduced property values and the resultant reduction in tax revenue. But let's take a moment to celebrate our good fortune -- just look at Orlando's room rates and occupancy numbers if you're having difficulty with that concept -- and the fact that the light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter.

The champagne with which we toast may still be the low-budget variety, but it's tasting pretty good under the circumstances.

-- The Citizen