Florida Keys residents let out a collective sigh of relief Monday, as hurricane season came to an uneventful end.
Tourism and weather officials celebrated the end by burning the red and black hurricane flags that are flown during storms.
The 2009 season saw no evacuations or threats from approaching storms, said National Weather Service forecaster Alan Albanese, who finally could discuss the blissfully quiet season without risking a jinx.
"This was a great season," he said, adding that the national annual average is 11 named tropical storms. There were nine this year.
"Usually there are six hurricanes, and this year there were only three," Albanese said. "So we had half the average number of hurricanes."
William Gray, a scientist at Colorado State University known for his annual hurricane predictions, reduced his estimate three times as the storm season progressed. He publishes the annual forecasts with Philip Klotzbach.
"We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem," Gray wrote. "Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season's hurricane activity in early August."
He also emphasized his forecasts do not predict the specific locations of landfalls or strike zones within the Atlantic basin.
Gray predicted 14 named storms as early as December 2008, but subsequently dropped his estimate in April to 12. He lowered it in June and again in August, so his final prediction was for 10 named storms.
But by then, the storm season had started and various weather patterns had emerged to help forecasters, said Albanese, who added he does not put much stock into Gray's December predictions, which are nearly six months before the storm season.
"He works very hard and there are so many independent variables that can contribute to the season," Albanese said, lamenting the public's and the media's public outcry for annual storm predictions. "Partly cloudy doesn't sell, but severe thunderstorms and an active hurricane season tend to get people's attention and make headlines."
For the 2009 season, turbulent winds high in the atmosphere and cooler water off the West African coast helped keep things quiet in the Atlantic, Albanese said.
"This year the winds aloft never relaxed, and hurricanes don't want other winds near them," he said. "They want to create their own winds in a sort of vacuum, and the winds aloft remained active and farther south this year."
In addition, an El Nino weather pattern emerged and helped keep the winds strong, Albanese said, happy to cross off another storm season.
mbolen@keysnews.com